1. U.S military presence means South Korea won’t militarize now.
Bruce Bennett 2010, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html, 7/1/2010)
An American academic says SouthKorea's military capabilities are inadequate to handle a North Korean invasion or other North Korean military action or regime collapse there. In an article entitled "Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks," Bruce Bennett, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, said South Korea could face a crisis if it fails to enhance its military capabilities through modernization of equipment and personnel capable of using and maintaining it. He cited South Korea's outdated weapons, inadequate military budget, and reduced conscription period as the rationale for his claim. Many major South Korean weapon systems "are very old, such as M48 tanks and F-5 aircraft originally designed and produced three decades or more ago," he said. By contrast, "the U.S. military spends some 16 times as much as the [South Korean] military on equipment acquisition each year despite the U.S. forces having only twice as many personnel. U.S. military research and development spending is some 50 times" South Korean spending each year.
2. US pull out causes South Korean prolif
Patrick J. Buchanan, senior advisor to three Presidents, columnist, political analyst for MSNBC, chairman of The American Cause foundation and an editor of The American Conservative, Patrick J. Buchanan; right from the beginning(blog), 10/10/2006, http://buchanan.org/blog/pjb-an-asian-nuclear-arms-race-134
For over a decade, this writer has argued for a withdrawal of all U.S. forces from South Korea — because the Cold War was over, the Soviet Union had broken up and there was no longer any vital U.S. interest on the peninsula. And because South Korea, with twice the population of the North, an economy 40 times as large and access to U.S. weapons generations ahead of North Korea’s 1950s arsenal, should defend herself. If we leave now, however, Seoul will take it as a signal that we are abandoning her to face a nuclear-armed North. South Korea will have little choice but to begin a crash program to build her own nuclear arsenal.
3. That leads into a East Asian arms race
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division AND Sharon Squassoni. Specialist in National Defense, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, 10/24/06, CRS Report for Congress, “North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Motivations, Implications, and U.S. Options”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33709.pdf
Many regional experts fear that the nuclear test will stimulate an arms race in the region. Geopolitical instability could prompt Northeast Asian states with the ability to develop nuclear weapons relatively quickly to move forward, creating a cascading effect on other powers in the region. One scenario envisioned would start with a Japanese decision to develop a nuclear weapons program in the face of a clear and present danger from North Korea. South Korea, still wary of Tokyo’s intentions based on Japan’s imperial past, could follow suit and develop its own nuclear weapons program. If neighboring states appear to be developing nuclear weapons without drawing punishment from the international community, Taiwan may choose to do the same to counter the threat from mainland China. In turn, this could prompt China to increase its own arsenal, which could have impact on further development of programs in South Asia. Alternatively, South Korea could “go nuclear” first, stimulating a similar chain of reactions. Most nonproliferation experts believe that Japan, using existing but safeguarded stocks of plutonium, could quickly manufacture a nuclear arsenal. South Korea and Taiwan would take longer, although there is evidence of past experiments with plutonium processing for both countries.24
4. East Asian arms race will cause extinction. Ogura & Oh ’97 [Toshimaru Ogura and Ingyu Oh are professors of economics, April, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan,” 1997Accessed July 10, 2008 via Lexis-Nexis (Monthly Review)] North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have achieved quasi- or virtual nuclear armament. Although these countries do not produce or possess actual bombs, they possess sufficient technological know-how to possess one or several nuclear arsenals. Thus, virtual armament creates a new nightmare in this region - nuclear annihilation. Given the concentration of economic affluence and military power in this region and its growing importance to the world system, any hot conflict among these countries would threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.
Prostitution/Gender Frontline
Rape victims experience less mental disorders if they are able to confront their violator.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates that U.S. residents experienced 5.2 million violent crimes in 2007 (U.S. Department of Justice, 2008). It is difficult to overstate the impact that violent offending can have on victims’ emotional well-being. A number of studies have linked violent victimization and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Boudreaux, Kilpatrick, Resnick, Best, & Saunders, 1998; Breslau, Davis, Andreski, & Petersen, 1991; Campbell&Raja., 1999; Kilpatrick&Acierno, 2003; Rothbaum, Foa, Riggs, Murdock, & Walsh, 1992). Others describe the connection between victimization and depression, substance abuse, panic disorder, anxiety disorders, agoraphobia, social phobia, obsessive compulsive disorder, and suicide (Boudreaux et al., 1998; Breslau et al., 1991; Kilpatrick et al., 2003; Orth & Maercker, 2004; Resick, 1987; Salomon et al., 2004). Victims also report a range of “nonclinical” effects including loss of confidence and self-esteem, sleeplessness, and physical symptoms (Strang, 2003). There are a number of potential benefits for victims who choose to report violent crimes. Contact with the criminal justice system can be cathartic and confronting reminders of the original crime may aid in the process of recovery (Foa & Kozak, 1986; Orth, 2002). Studies of victims of intimate partner violence have found that women who pursue their case through the courts report improvements in self-esteem, regardless of the outcome (Dobash, Dobash, Cavanagh, & Lewis, 1999; Ford & Regoli, 1993). Participants in a Canadian study of sexual abuse compensation claims stated the need to report their experience, to be heard, and to have “their abuse acknowledged, their experiences validated, and to receive an apology” (Feldthusen, Hankivsky, & Greaves, 2002, p. 75). In contrast, avoidant coping strategies have been linked to increased PTSD symptoms for victims of both domestic violence and rape (Ehlers & Clark, 2000).
Turn- soldiers have a high rate of domestic abuse
Alan Elsner, National Correspondent, 12-8-2, rense.com, “Wife Beating Seen As Epidemic In US Military”, http://www.rense.com/general32/epi.htm
Though the military acknowledges it could do a better job collecting statistics on domestic violence by service personnel, studies have suggested that abuse rates are two to three times higher than in the civilian population. Defense Department estimates suggest incidents of domestic violence in the military rose from 18.6 per 1,000 marriages in 1990 to 25.6 per 1,000 in 1996. Rates fell slightly from 1997-1999 but there were more moderate to severe incidents. The figures did not include an unknown number of cases not reported or handled informally by commanders, or violence against girlfriends or unmarried live-in partners, who have no legal standing in the eyes of the military. "The military has simply not come to terms with the problem. They've known about it for a long time, and have repeatedly acknowledged the severity of the problem, but they have not dealt with it," said Terri Spahr Nelson, a former army psychotherapist and author of a book on rape and sexual harassment in the military.
Philippines government banned work permits to stop sex trafficking of Filipino women
Youngbee Dale, Human Rights Examiner, graduate from Regent University co-contributor to the anti-human trafficking publication, "Setting the Captives Free" interned at World Bank in D.C. and worked for trafficking victims and migrant workers in South Korea, February 8, 2010, examiner, “U.S. military anti-prostitution/sex trafficking policy appears to be ineffective”, http://wwww.examiner.com/x-24740-Human-Rights-Examiner~y2010m2d8-US-military-personals-creates-demand-for-sex-trafficking-in-South-Korea Recently, the Philippines government banned work permits for women seeking to work for bars in South Korea. [1] Aggravated by the nonstop sex trafficking incidents involving Filipino women around the U.S. Military base in South Korea, the Philippine government decided to stop sending their women to the sex industry abroad. For the past decade or so, Filipino women are hired to serve U.S. military service members and flirt with them to lure them into buying expensive drinks to meet the daily quota required by their employers. When the women fail to meet the daily quota, they are required to sell their bodies to the U.S soldiers to make up the difference. [2] The element of sex trafficking enters when these women are lured into coming to South Korea with the belief that they will be singing and dancing at the clubs and bars as entertainers. However, it is only after their arrival to the clubs and bars that they realize that their works involve prostitution in times.
Philippines have cracked down on prostitution of Filipino women, however Russian women are replacing them NNN-Bernama, Feb 4th, 2010, NAM NEWS NETWORK, “PHILIPPINE BANS WORK PERMIT FOR WOMEN SEEKING TO WORK AT BARS IN SOUTH KOREA”, http://news.brunei.fm/2010/02/04/philippine-bans-work-permit-for-women-seeking-to-work-at-bars-in-south-korea/
SEOUL, Feb 4 — The Philippine government has stopped giving work permits to its women seeking to work at bars and clubs near U.S. bases in South Korea amid concern they often fall victim to prostitution. Citing the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for U.S. forces overseas, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the government in Manila has decided to reject requests from recruiters seeking authorisation of Filipino women to work at the bars prevalent near U.S. military bases in Songtan, Dongducheon, Osan, Pyeongtaek and elsewhere. These Filipino bar workers are hired to serve U.S. servicemembers and talk them into buying them expensive drinks in exchange for their continued company and conversation. Those who failed to meet their drink-sale quotas are often the subject of “bar fines”, as in these women must sell sex to customers to make up the shortfall. After securing “entertainer visas” from South Korea, these women must get their proposed employment contracts approved by the Philippines government. Many of these women actually come to Korea believing that they are being hired to sing and dance, rather than sell drinks, let alone sex, to U.S. servicemembers, according to the Philippine Embassy. While the number of Filipino bar workers has dropped by 40 percent after the Philippines crackdown, women from Russia and other countries are quickly replacing them, according to My Sister’s Place, a non-profit organization working to help juicy bar employees forced into prostitution. On another side, U.S. military officials have been moving to discourage human trafficking and prostitution at base-area establishments, placing any institution found engaging in prostitution off limits, Yonhap said. Osan Air Base officials recently declared four bars near the base off limits, the newest in about 50 base-area bars that have been categorised as illicit.
North Korean nuclear use triggers every impact – it destroys the ozone layer, starvation, global warming, not to mentions the mass death from nukes
Peter Hayes and Michael Green, 1/5/10 - Victoria University and Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute,“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments, and related political and economic issues, are serious, not only for the Northeast Asian region but for the whole international community. At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow...The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger...To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.
North Korean nuclear use risks nuclear wars throughout Asia
Stephen J. Cimbala, Professor of Political Science at Penn State, September 9th 2009, informaworld, “Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century”, p. 117-118 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t909466462 Failure to contain proliferation in Pyongyang could spread nuclear fever throughout Asia. Japan and South Korea might seek nuclear weapons and missile defenses. A pentagonal configuration of nuclear powers in the Pacific basis (Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas – not including the United States, with its own Pacific interests) could put deterrence at risk and create enormous temptation toward nuclear preemption. Apart from actual use or threat of use, North Korea could exploit the mere existence of an assumed nuclear capability in order to support its coercive diplomacy. As George H. Quester has noted: If the Pyongyang regime plays its cards sensibly and well, therefore, the world will not see its nuclear weapons being used against Japan or South Korea or anyone else, but will rather see this new nuclear arsenal held in reserve (just as the putative Israeli nuclear arsenal has been held in reserve), as a deterrent against the outside world’s applying maximal pressure on Pyongyang and as a bargaining chip to extract the economic and political concessions that the DPRK needs if it wishes to avoid giving up its peculiar approach to social engineering. A five-sided nuclear competition in the Pacific would be linked, in geopolitical deterrence and proliferation space, to the existing nuclear deterrents in India and Pakistan, and to the emerging nuclear weapons status of Iran. An arc of nuclear instability from Tehran to Tokyo could place U.S. proliferation strategies into the ash heap of history and call for more drastic military options, not excluding preemptive war, defenses, and counter-deterrent special operations. In addition, an eight-sided nuclear arms race in Asia would increase the likelihood of accidental or inadvertent nuclear war. It would do so because: (1) some of these states already have histories of protracted conflict; (2) states may have politically unreliable or immature command and control systems, especially during a crisis involving a decision for nuclear first strike or retaliation; unreliable or immature systems might permit a technical malfunction that caused an unintended launch, or a deliberate but unauthorized launch by rogue commanders; (3) faulty intelligence and warning systems might cause one side to misinterpret the other’s defensive moves to forestall attack as offensive preparations for attack, thus triggering a mistaken preemption.
toc South Korea Rearm DA
Prostitution/Gender Frontline
1. U.S military presence means South Korea won’t militarize now.Table of Contents
Bruce Bennett 2010, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, “S. Korea’s Military Capability ‘Inadequate’”, Chosun Ilbo, 1-29, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/01/29/2010012900705.html, 7/1/2010)
An American academic says South Korea's military capabilities are inadequate to handle a North Korean invasion or other North Korean military action or regime collapse there. In an article entitled "Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks," Bruce Bennett, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, said South Korea could face a crisis if it fails to enhance its military capabilities through modernization of equipment and personnel capable of using and maintaining it. He cited South Korea's outdated weapons, inadequate military budget, and reduced conscription period as the rationale for his claim. Many major South Korean weapon systems "are very old, such as M48 tanks and F-5 aircraft originally designed and produced three decades or more ago," he said. By contrast, "the U.S. military spends some 16 times as much as the [South Korean] military on equipment acquisition each year despite the U.S. forces having only twice as many personnel. U.S. military research and development spending is some 50 times" South Korean spending each year.
2. US pull out causes South Korean prolif
Patrick J. Buchanan, senior advisor to three Presidents, columnist, political analyst for MSNBC, chairman of The American Cause foundation and an editor of The American Conservative, Patrick J. Buchanan; right from the beginning(blog), 10/10/2006, http://buchanan.org/blog/pjb-an-asian-nuclear-arms-race-134
For over a decade, this writer has argued for a withdrawal of all U.S. forces from South Korea — because the Cold War was over, the Soviet Union had broken up and there was no longer any vital U.S. interest on the peninsula. And because South Korea, with twice the population of the North, an economy 40 times as large and access to U.S. weapons generations ahead of North Korea’s 1950s arsenal, should defend herself. If we leave now, however, Seoul will take it as a signal that we are abandoning her to face a nuclear-armed North. South Korea will have little choice but to begin a crash program to build her own nuclear arsenal.
3. That leads into a East Asian arms race
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division AND Sharon Squassoni. Specialist in National Defense, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, 10/24/06, CRS Report for Congress, “North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Motivations, Implications, and U.S. Options”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33709.pdf
Many regional experts fear that the nuclear test will stimulate an arms race in the region. Geopolitical instability could prompt Northeast Asian states with the ability to develop nuclear weapons relatively quickly to move forward, creating a cascading effect on other powers in the region. One scenario envisioned would start with a Japanese decision to develop a nuclear weapons program in the face of a clear and present danger from North Korea. South Korea, still wary of Tokyo’s intentions based on Japan’s imperial past, could follow suit and develop its own nuclear weapons program. If neighboring states appear to be developing nuclear weapons without drawing punishment from the international community, Taiwan may choose to do the same to counter the threat from mainland China. In turn, this could prompt China to increase its own arsenal, which could have impact on further development of programs in South Asia. Alternatively, South Korea could “go nuclear” first, stimulating a similar chain of reactions. Most nonproliferation experts believe that Japan, using existing but safeguarded stocks of plutonium, could quickly manufacture a nuclear arsenal. South Korea and Taiwan would take longer, although there is evidence of past experiments with plutonium processing for both countries.24
4. East Asian arms race will cause extinction.
Ogura & Oh ’97 [Toshimaru Ogura and Ingyu Oh are professors of economics, April, “Nuclear clouds over the Korean peninsula and Japan,” 1997Accessed July 10, 2008 via Lexis-Nexis (Monthly Review)]
North Korea, South Korea, and Japan have achieved quasi- or virtual nuclear armament. Although these countries do not produce or possess actual bombs, they possess sufficient technological know-how to possess one or several nuclear arsenals. Thus, virtual armament creates a new nightmare in this region - nuclear annihilation. Given the concentration of economic affluence and military power in this region and its growing importance to the world system, any hot conflict among these countries would threaten to escalate into a global conflagration.
Prostitution/Gender Frontline
Rape victims experience less mental disorders if they are able to confront their violator.Jim Parsons and Tiffany Bergin, writers for the Vera Institute of Justice, April 2010, interscience, “The Impact of Criminal Justice Involvement on Victims’ Mental Health”, http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/123319673/PDFSTART, 7/5/10, HR).
The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimates that U.S. residents experienced 5.2 million violent crimes in 2007 (U.S. Department of Justice, 2008). It is difficult to overstate the impact that violent offending can have on victims’ emotional well-being. A number of studies have linked violent victimization and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Boudreaux, Kilpatrick, Resnick, Best, & Saunders, 1998; Breslau, Davis, Andreski, & Petersen, 1991; Campbell&Raja., 1999; Kilpatrick&Acierno, 2003; Rothbaum, Foa, Riggs, Murdock, & Walsh, 1992). Others describe the connection between victimization and depression, substance abuse, panic disorder, anxiety disorders, agoraphobia, social phobia, obsessive compulsive disorder, and suicide (Boudreaux et al., 1998; Breslau et al., 1991; Kilpatrick et al., 2003; Orth & Maercker, 2004; Resick, 1987; Salomon et al., 2004). Victims also report a range of “nonclinical” effects including loss of confidence and self-esteem, sleeplessness, and physical symptoms (Strang, 2003). There are a number of potential benefits for victims who choose to report violent crimes. Contact with the criminal justice system can be cathartic and confronting reminders of the original crime may aid in the process of recovery (Foa & Kozak, 1986; Orth, 2002). Studies of victims of intimate partner violence have found that women who pursue their case through the courts report improvements in self-esteem, regardless of the outcome (Dobash, Dobash, Cavanagh, & Lewis, 1999; Ford & Regoli, 1993). Participants in a Canadian study of sexual abuse compensation claims stated the need to report their experience, to be heard, and to have “their abuse acknowledged, their experiences validated, and to receive an apology” (Feldthusen, Hankivsky, & Greaves, 2002, p. 75). In contrast, avoidant coping strategies have been linked to increased PTSD symptoms for victims of both domestic violence and rape (Ehlers & Clark, 2000).
Turn- soldiers have a high rate of domestic abuse
Alan Elsner, National Correspondent, 12-8-2, rense.com, “Wife Beating Seen As Epidemic In US Military”, http://www.rense.com/general32/epi.htm
Though the military acknowledges it could do a better job collecting statistics on domestic violence by service personnel, studies have suggested that abuse rates are two to three times higher than in the civilian population. Defense Department estimates suggest incidents of domestic violence in the military rose from 18.6 per 1,000 marriages in 1990 to 25.6 per 1,000 in 1996. Rates fell slightly from 1997-1999 but there were more moderate to severe incidents. The figures did not include an unknown number of cases not reported or handled informally by commanders, or violence against girlfriends or unmarried live-in partners, who have no legal standing in the eyes of the military. "The military has simply not come to terms with the problem. They've known about it for a long time, and have repeatedly acknowledged the severity of the problem, but they have not dealt with it," said Terri Spahr Nelson, a former army psychotherapist and author of a book on rape and sexual harassment in the military.
Philippines government banned work permits to stop sex trafficking of Filipino women
Youngbee Dale, Human Rights Examiner, graduate from Regent University co-contributor to the anti-human trafficking publication, "Setting the Captives Free" interned at World Bank in D.C. and worked for trafficking victims and migrant workers in South Korea, February 8, 2010, examiner, “U.S. military anti-prostitution/sex trafficking policy appears to be ineffective”, http://wwww.examiner.com/x-24740-Human-Rights-Examiner~y2010m2d8-US-military-personals-creates-demand-for-sex-trafficking-in-South-Korea
Recently, the Philippines government banned work permits for women seeking to work for bars in South Korea. [1] Aggravated by the nonstop sex trafficking incidents involving Filipino women around the U.S. Military base in South Korea, the Philippine government decided to stop sending their women to the sex industry abroad. For the past decade or so, Filipino women are hired to serve U.S. military service members and flirt with them to lure them into buying expensive drinks to meet the daily quota required by their employers. When the women fail to meet the daily quota, they are required to sell their bodies to the U.S soldiers to make up the difference. [2] The element of sex trafficking enters when these women are lured into coming to South Korea with the belief that they will be singing and dancing at the clubs and bars as entertainers. However, it is only after their arrival to the clubs and bars that they realize that their works involve prostitution in times.
Philippines have cracked down on prostitution of Filipino women, however Russian women are replacing them
NNN-Bernama, Feb 4th, 2010, NAM NEWS NETWORK, “PHILIPPINE BANS WORK PERMIT FOR WOMEN SEEKING TO WORK AT BARS IN SOUTH KOREA”, http://news.brunei.fm/2010/02/04/philippine-bans-work-permit-for-women-seeking-to-work-at-bars-in-south-korea/
SEOUL, Feb 4 — The Philippine government has stopped giving work permits to its women seeking to work at bars and clubs near U.S. bases in South Korea amid concern they often fall victim to prostitution. Citing the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for U.S. forces overseas, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the government in Manila has decided to reject requests from recruiters seeking authorisation of Filipino women to work at the bars prevalent near U.S. military bases in Songtan, Dongducheon, Osan, Pyeongtaek and elsewhere. These Filipino bar workers are hired to serve U.S. servicemembers and talk them into buying them expensive drinks in exchange for their continued company and conversation. Those who failed to meet their drink-sale quotas are often the subject of “bar fines”, as in these women must sell sex to customers to make up the shortfall. After securing “entertainer visas” from South Korea, these women must get their proposed employment contracts approved by the Philippines government. Many of these women actually come to Korea believing that they are being hired to sing and dance, rather than sell drinks, let alone sex, to U.S. servicemembers, according to the Philippine Embassy. While the number of Filipino bar workers has dropped by 40 percent after the Philippines crackdown, women from Russia and other countries are quickly replacing them, according to My Sister’s Place, a non-profit organization working to help juicy bar employees forced into prostitution. On another side, U.S. military officials have been moving to discourage human trafficking and prostitution at base-area establishments, placing any institution found engaging in prostitution off limits, Yonhap said. Osan Air Base officials recently declared four bars near the base off limits, the newest in about 50 base-area bars that have been categorised as illicit.
North Korean nuclear use triggers every impact – it destroys the ozone layer, starvation, global warming, not to mentions the mass death from nukes
Peter Hayes and Michael Green, 1/5/10 - Victoria University and Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute,“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”,
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments, and related political and economic issues, are serious, not only for the Northeast Asian region but for the whole international community. At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow...The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger...To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.
North Korean nuclear use risks nuclear wars throughout Asia
Stephen J. Cimbala, Professor of Political Science at Penn State, September 9th 2009, informaworld, “Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century”, p. 117-118 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t909466462
Failure to contain proliferation in Pyongyang could spread nuclear fever throughout Asia. Japan and South Korea might seek nuclear weapons and missile defenses. A pentagonal configuration of nuclear powers in the Pacific basis (Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas – not including the United States, with its own Pacific interests) could put deterrence at risk and create enormous temptation toward nuclear preemption. Apart from actual use or threat of use, North Korea could exploit the mere existence of an assumed nuclear capability in order to support its coercive diplomacy. As George H. Quester has noted: If the Pyongyang regime plays its cards sensibly and well, therefore, the world will not see its nuclear weapons being used against Japan or South Korea or anyone else, but will rather see this new nuclear arsenal held in reserve (just as the putative Israeli nuclear arsenal has been held in reserve), as a deterrent against the outside world’s applying maximal pressure on Pyongyang and as a bargaining chip to extract the economic and political concessions that the DPRK needs if it wishes to avoid giving up its peculiar approach to social engineering. A five-sided nuclear competition in the Pacific would be linked, in geopolitical deterrence and proliferation space, to the existing nuclear deterrents in India and Pakistan, and to the emerging nuclear weapons status of Iran. An arc of nuclear instability from Tehran to Tokyo could place U.S. proliferation strategies into the ash heap of history and call for more drastic military options, not excluding preemptive war, defenses, and counter-deterrent special operations. In addition, an eight-sided nuclear arms race in Asia would increase the likelihood of accidental or inadvertent nuclear war. It would do so because: (1) some of these states already have histories of protracted conflict; (2) states may have politically unreliable or immature command and control systems, especially during a crisis involving a decision for nuclear first strike or retaliation; unreliable or immature systems might permit a technical malfunction that caused an unintended launch, or a deliberate but unauthorized launch by rogue commanders; (3) faulty intelligence and warning systems might cause one side to misinterpret the other’s defensive moves to forestall attack as offensive preparations for attack, thus triggering a mistaken preemption.